COVID Musing

COVID Musing

We are now about 3 months through the start of quarantines and based on a number of sources I have a few different thoughts.

Being outside doesn't seem to be a a big deal
In Colorado there have been some very very large protests going on 3+ weeks ago however we haven't seen a spike in new cases. My guess is mainly because of a few things:

  1. Colorado is breezy
  2. Colorado has very dry air
  3. Colorado is hot in the summer

In my opinion (I am not a doctor at all) the air in Colorado is hostile to COVID and makes it much less likely that COVID will spread. When the air is warm and dry the moisture from people's breath dries our quickly and the wind takes it away.

I have been hesitant to say this until we had 3 weeks since the BLM protests but luckily this is backed up by current data. Below is Colorado's hospitalization rate as of June 15th.

https://manufacturer-60757.netlify.app/DASH%20Public%20page_patients_discharges.png

Hospitalizations are the best way to view Covid spread because its not dependent on testing, its dependent on how sick you are.

Another way to view this is Rate of Transmission, this is how many people a patient infected with Covid spreads it to.  The image below is a representation of this in Colorado on a 2 week look-back.

https://manufacturer-60757.netlify.app/rtlive.png

As you can see the average COVID positive person is only spreading it to .87 people. Meaning that less and less people are being infected every day.

Being inside is, so wear a mask
Why are seeing spikes in states that are like CO, hot and dry like Arizona? Well Arizona is almost TOO hot, people are not spending time outside they are living in AC and that is the worst possible place to be for COVID to spread. Erin Bromage a doctor much smarter than me goes into exactly why inside is worse than outside, but the short answer is "Viral Load".

I encourage anyone reading this to do their own research. My sources for the info are the following websites:

Erin Bromage
Colorado COVID Hospital Tracking
NY Visualizations
ProPublica
RT Live
Wear a Mask

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